Slowdown in China

By Isaac Cohen*

`The Chinese economy last year reached the lowest rate of growth of the past three decades. According to the latest update of the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), released in January, China is estimated to grow 6.6 percent in 2018 and projected to grow 6.2 percent in both 2019 and 2020. But the WEO warned “China’s growth slowdown could be faster than expected especially if trade tensions continue.”

The impact of the slowdown in the second largest economy is evident throughout the world, especially in those economies where China has become the main trading partner. Such is the case of Germany, where the slowdown in China has contributed to the tepid rate of growth of 1.5 percent expected for 2018.

Also, a December fall in Chinese imports, reflecting a slowdown in retail sales to the lowest level in 15 years, meant less imports of Japanese semiconductors and less sales of cars, smart phones and heavy construction equipment from the United States. Other Asian economies, such as South Korea have registered deep falls in their exports to China.

Commodity exporters from emerging market economies have also been hurt by the slowdown in China. For instance, the prices of most metals and even those of oil have gone down due to the expectation of less demand from China.

Given the global impact of the slowdown, the question is if this time China’s central bank will again provide the stimulus required to avoid a hard landing.

*International analyst and consultant, former Director ECLAC Washington. Commentator on economic and financial issues for CNN en Español TV and radio, UNIVISION, TELEMUNDO and other media.

About Ramón Jiménez

Ramón Jiménez, Managing Editor de MetroLatinoUSA.Com (MLN). Graduado de la Escuela de Periodismo de la Universidad del Distrito de Columbia (UDC). Email:

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