By Isaac Cohen*
The employment figures released last week by the Labor Department provided more good news about the US economy. In January, 225,000 new non agricultural jobs were created and the unemployment rate increased slightly, from 3.5 to 3.6 percent, still the lowest rate in half a century. Job creation in January exceeded the monthly average of 175,000 registered during last year. In fact, during the last three months, the monthly average of job creation reached 211,000, indicating that the economy is starting vigorously this election year. To the point that many supporters of the reelection of President Donald Trump are wishing the election would be today.
However, 270 days before the November election, there are still risks, described by the President of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell as “crosscurrents and conflicting signals.” Among these, there are still uncertainties about trade relations, tightened financial conditions and less confidence among businesses and consumers.
There are also unexpected events that can derail the positive outlook, as the impact of the corona virus is felt throughout the world economy. This kind of event can produce shocks, such as the drop last week in the price of oil, below $50 per barrel. Additionally, just when the “first phase” trade agreement between China and the United States was expected to eliminate some of the negative effects of the trade confrontation, such expectations are postponed until the full extent is known of the virus economic impact.
*International analyst and consultant, former Director ECLAC Washington. Commentator on economic and financial issues for CNN en Español TV and radio, UNIVISION, TELEMUNDO and other media.
