Commodities

By Isaac Cohen*

Out of the three conditions upon which the International Monetary -Fund based this year’s positive projections for growth in Latin America, higher prices for commodities may have already started. The other two conditions, expanding vaccinations and a better performance in the US economy, still remain to be seen.

There already are indications that commodity prices, for both agricultural and minerals, are starting to climb out of the steep fall of 2020. Starting by oil which last year fell under $40, due to the drastic contraction in transportation, this week crossed over $60 per barrel. Also, the metric ton of copper, the bellwether of minerals, last week reached more than $9,000, a 15 percent increase from last year, equivalent to the best price in almost a decade.

Agricultural commodities are starting to look more promising, due to increasing purchases from China. The prices of grains, such as wheat, soybeans and corn, have already increased to levels not seen in six years. Therefore, in the spring, farmers in the United States are expected to plant grains in an area not seen since 2014,

In any case, the pace of the economic recovery will be determined by worldwide vaccinations and by the return of faster economic growth in China and the United States.

*International analyst and consultant, former Director ECLAC Washington. Commentator on economic and financial issues for CNN en Español TV and radio, UNIVISION, TELEMUNDO and other media.

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